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Climate Models vs. Measurements, Running 5 Year Means Roy Spencer, Ph. DIn response to those who complained in my recent post that linear trends are not a good way to compare the models to observations even though the modelers have claimed that its the long term behavior of the models we should focus on, not individual years, here are running 5 year averages for the tropical tropospheric temperature, models versus observations click for full size In this case, the models and observations have been plotted so that their respective 1. In my opinion, the day of reckoning has arrived. The modellers and the IPCC have willingly ignored the evidence for low climate sensitivity for many years, despite the fact that some of us have shown that simply confusing cause and effect when examining cloud and temperature variations can totally mislead you on cloud feedbacks e. Spencer Braswell, 2. The discrepancy between models and observations is not a new issuejust one that is becoming more glaring over time. It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the coming years. I frankly dont see how the IPCC can keep claiming that the models are not inconsistent with the observations. Any sane person can see otherwise. If the observations in the above graph were on the UPPER warm side of the models, do you really believe the modelers would not be falling all over themselves to see how much additional surface warming they could get their models to produce Hundreds of millions of dollars that have gone into the expensive climate modelling enterprise has all but destroyed governmental funding of research into natural sources of climate change. For years the modelers have maintained that there is no such thing as natural climate changeyet they now, ironically, have to invoke natural climate forces to explain why surface warming has essentially stopped in the last 1. Forgive me if I sound frustrated, but we scientists who still believe that climate change can also be naturally forced have been virtually cut out of funding and publication by the humans cause everything bad that happens juggernaut. The public who funds their work will not stand for their willful blindness much longer. Why Houston Flooding Isnt a Sign of Climate Change Roy Spencer, Ph. DIn the context of climate change, is what we are seeing in Houston a new level of disaster which is becoming more common The flood disaster unfolding in Houston is certainly very unusual. But so are other natural weather disasters, which have always occurred and always will occur. By the way, making naturally occurring severe weather seem unnatural is a favorite tactic of Al Gore, whose new movie book An Inconvenient Sequel currently 2. Kindle is dismantled in my new e book, An Inconvenient Deception currently 3. Floods arent just due to weather. Autodesk Inventor 2013 64 Bit Keygen. Major floods are difficult to compare throughout history because the ways in which we alter the landscape. For example, as cities like Houston expand over the years, soil is covered up by roads, parking lots, and buildings, with water rapidly draining off rather than soaking into the soil. The population of Houston is now ten times what it was in the 1. The Houston metroplex area has expanded greatly and the water drainage is basically in the direction of downtown Houston. Atmosphere Weather And Climate Barry Pdf Viewer' title='Atmosphere Weather And Climate Barry Pdf Viewer' />And it was fun to see my charts in it The lecture is reprinted here pdf or here html over at Anthondy Watts site. The charts I did are around pages 67 of. Numerical weather prediction NWP uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Environment for the MDGs. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Development Planning A Guide for Practitioners. UNDPUNEP PovertyEnvironment Initiative. CometEarth impact chronology web sites related to Vulcan, Comets and the Impending Catastrophe. Atmosphere Weather And Climate Barry Pdf ConverterAtmosphere Weather And Climate Barry Pdf MergeThere have been many flood disasters in the Houston area, even dating to the mid 1. In December of 1. Buffalo Bayou in Houston topped out at 5. Downtown Houston flood of 1. By way of comparison, as of 6 3. Monday morning, the water level in the same location is at 3. Atmosphere Weather And Climate Barry Pdf Reader' title='Atmosphere Weather And Climate Barry Pdf Reader' />This section introduces a range of climatesmart agriculture CSA practices and technologies within seven entry points for CSA soil management, crop. MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen Demonization of CO2 is irrational at best and even modest warming is mostly beneficial. When someone says this is the. Im sure that will continue to rise. Are the rainfall totals unprecedented Even that question is difficult to answer. The exact same tropical system moving at, say, 1. This is usually what happens with landfalling hurricanes. Instead, Harvey stalled after it came ashore and so all of the rain has been concentrated in a relatively small portion of Texas around the Houston area. In both cases, the atmosphere produced the same amount of rain, but where the rain lands is very different. People like those in the Houston area dont want all of the rain to land on them. There is no aspect of global warming theory that says rain systems are going to be moving slower, as we are seeing in Texas. This is just the luck of the draw. Sometimes weather systems stall, and that sucks if you are caught under one. The same is true of high pressure areas when they stall, a drought results. Even with the system stalling, the greatest multi day rainfall total as of 3 9 a. Monday morning is just over 3. We should recall that Tropical Storm Claudette in 1. Harvey produced a 4. Houston. Was Harvey unprecedented in intensity In this case, we didnt have just a tropical storm like Claudette, but a major hurricane, which covered a much larger area with heavy rain. Roger Pielke Jr. has pointed out that the U. S. has had only four Category 4 or stronger hurricane strikes since 1. So we cant say that we are experiencing more intense hurricanes in recent decades. Going back even earlier, a Category 4 hurricane struck Galveston in 1. That was the greatest natural disaster in U. S. history. And dont forget, we just went through an unprecedented length of time almost 1. Cat 3 or stronger making landfall in the U. S. So what makes this event unprecedentedThe National Weather Service has termed the event unfolding in the Houston area as unprecedented. Im not sure why. I suspect in terms of damage and number of people affected, that will be the case. But the primary reason wont be because this was an unprecedented meteorological event. If we are talking about the 1. Texas hasnt seen this much total rain fall over a fairly wide area. At this point it doesnt look like any rain gage locations will break the record for total 2. Texas, or possibly even for storm total rainfall, but to have so large an area having over 2. They will break records for their individual gage locations, but thats the kind of record that is routinely broken somewhere anyway, like record high and low temperatures. In any case, Id be surprised if such a meteorological event didnt happen in centuries past in this area, before we were measuring them. And dont pay attention to claims of 5. Bill Read, a former director of the National Hurricane Center was asked by a CNN news anchor whether he thought that Harvey was made worse because of global warming. Reads response was basically, No. Unprecedented doesnt necessarily mean it represents a new normal. It can just be a rare combination of events. In 2. 00. 5 the U. S. was struck by many strong hurricanes, and the NHC even ran out of names to give all of the tropical storms. Then we went almost 1. Surviving Mommie Dearest'>Surviving Mommie Dearest. Cat 3 or stronger hurricane strike. Weird stuff happens. I remember many years ago in one of the NWS annual summaries of lightning deaths there was a golfer who was struck by lightning. While an ambulance transported the man to the hospital, the ambulance was stuck by lightning and it finished the poor fellow off. There is coastal lake sediment evidence of catastrophic hurricanes which struck the Florida panhandle over 1,0. Weather disasters happen, with or without the help of humans.